Immigration still fuels President Trump’s political future

Border chaos continues to favor Trump.
Photo: Tama Mario/Getty Images

Of all the causes of trouble, donald trumpThough unlikely to conquer the Republican Party in 2016, immigration and its closely related xenophobic sentiments were arguably most important. Yes, many Republicans in general, especially those who belong to the increasingly dominant category of non-college-educated white voters, will by that time be in the “globalist” commerce trade associated with party presidents and congressional leaders. Dissatisfied with the policy and the “eternal war”. , along with a relentless effort to undermine the highly popular federal retirement system. Trump enjoyed all that alienation. But before he arrived as a politician, there was an even stronger grassroots rebellion against politicians. Liberalization of immigration policy Associated with George W. Bush and 2008 presidential candidate John McCain. Behind the ugly racism of anti-immigrant sentiment, “Birthday” conspiracy theory It was President Trump’s ticket to gaining credibility as a potential presidential candidate, and the suggestion that dark-skinned lawbreakers entering the United States have dark-skinned interloper advocates in the White House.

Eight years later, Mr. Trump is on his way to a comeback, and he no longer needs to persuade Republicans against policies such as liberalizing immigration and asylum. His rivals for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination are all ranting about the “border crisis” as much as he is. The big question now is whether anti-immigrant sentiment will spread across the electorate and harsh xenophobic rhetoric will become a big weapon for Trump (or whoever the Republican Party nominates). Joe Bidenthe party is divided and on the defensive on the matter.

That may be report “Americans’ satisfaction with the level of immigration to the United States has fallen by 6 percentage points over the past year, from 34 percent in January 2022 to 28 percent today, the lowest figure in a decade.” A whopping 40 percent of Americans want immigration levels to go down, the highest number since just after 9/11. This trend is evident across all party affiliation groups.

The percentage of Republicans who complain that immigration levels are too high jumped from 40% in 2021 to 69% in 2022 and is now roughly the same at 71%. The percentage of dissatisfied Democrats who want immigration cuts has risen from a near-nonexistent 2% in 2021 to 11% last year and 19% today. Independence dissatisfaction and desire to reduce immigration have nearly doubled since 2021, rising from 19% then to 36% today.

This trend is likely to intensify in the future Covid-19 Policy Expires Enabling rapid deportation of immigrants will, as many expected, ultimately spur new cross-border inflows as the 2024 election cycle begins.

What has happened, of course, is that the debate about immigration among Americans has largely revolved around how to deal with undocumented Americans (and a particularly valuable sub-category of immigrants) who already live and work in the United States. It means that it has developed from a serious discussion. “Dreamers” The “crisis” was headlined by the influx of potential migrants (mainly those seeking asylum) across the southern border. Even immigration-sympathetic Americans may be concerned that the processing of immigration applications is apparently disrupted by the subsequent “release” of many people awaiting judgment in U.S. border regions. highly sexual. Declining numbers of unaccompanied minors and even family members Compassion for immigrants may be even less sympathetic if you enter the country during the latest wave of asylum claims.

More politically, the issue is becoming one where the Republicans are perking up and uniting, while the Democrats are wondering whether the Biden administration knows what they’re doing, or are more on the edge. I’m wondering if you just want to focus on the topic and shift the discussion. A good sign of the political challenge to the Democrats is that they are slowly losing their share of Latinx voters (a percentage that has fallen from 2019 to 2020, according to exit polls). 71% in 2012 To 60% by 2022) even if the opposition had become more openly chauvinistic.

It would clearly help Democrats if Mr. Biden could get a better handle on the border situation while drawing renewed attention to the need for comprehensive immigration reform. But for now, Trump’s agitation on the issue is met with less backlash from the Republican elite than ever before, and in 2024 immigration is no longer a “base mobilization,” largely a peripheral “mobilization” that draws cheers at MAGA rallies. It may not matter. That could be a wedge problem for swinging voter appeals that make Trump’s original sin a political virtue.

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