An inflation data set to be released on Tuesday will show whether the U.S. has continued to ease months of inflation despite a big hit job growth Last month, it became clear that the economy was running hotter than expected.
Forecasters expect 6.2% year-on-year inflation in January, marking the seventh straight month of declining inflation. Year-on-year change in December inflation was 6.5%.
The data show a significant slowdown from its summer peak, but more than three times that of the Federal Reserve. the goal of 2%.
The Federal Reserve earlier this month imposed A series of aggressive borrowing costs are on the rise as they try to keep prices down by slowing the economy and shutting off demand. But this approach risks pushing the US economy into recession.
So far, the economy has largely defied the expected slowdown.
economic Added There was a staggering 517,000 jobs in January, more than double the previous month’s job growth, according to government data released earlier this month, and a blistering average of about 400,000 monthly jobs added last year. Far ahead of the pace.
As a result, the unemployment rate fell to 3.4%, the lowest since 1969.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Said Citing employment data last week, he said the central bank has a “long way to go” in its fight against inflation.
Speaking at the Economic Club of Washington, DC, Powell said the Fed was surprised by the “very strong” jobs data.
“This shows why we think this will be a process that will take quite a while,” he added.
Still, the Fed has slowed its pace of rate hikes in recent months, signaling confidence that the central bank is starting to keep inflation under control.
Over the next three years, consumers expect inflation to slow to 2.7%, just above the central bank’s target for the New York Federal Reserve. found In a survey released on Monday.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell discusses onstage at the Washington Economic Club meeting at the Renaissance Hotel in Washington, DC, February 7, 2023.
Amanda Andrade-rhoades/Reuters, FILE
A combination of strong employment and easing inflation has raised hopes among some economists that the US can avoid a recession.
a report Forecasts released last month by the International Monetary Fund predicted that US economic growth would slow to 1.4% this year from 2% last year, but it showed the US could avoid a recession.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen was denied In an interview with “Good Morning America” that aired last Monday, he said the economy remained “strong and resilient” and expressed concern about a recession.
However, many consumers remain pessimistic.
Four in 10 Americans say their economy has gotten worse since Mr. Biden took office. ABC News/Washington Post A poll released earlier this month. The figure marks the highest percentage of dissatisfied respondents since the outlet began surveying him 37 years ago.
December home sales fell for the 11th straight month and reached their lowest level since November 2010, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Meanwhile, US retail sales fell in December, marking a whispering end to the usually busy holiday shopping season.